Photograph Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Each day Beast/Getty
The 2022 midterm season started suboptimally for Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. He was already going through a troublesome main problem from a well-financed opponent for a district that’s at all times focused by Republicans within the fall. Then the FBI raided his house.
He watched as high-profile Democrats both turned their backs on him or endorsed his Democratic challenger.
However regardless of being pressured right into a runoff, Cuellar survived.
And a number of the similar Democrats who have been actively rooting in opposition to him earlier this 12 months are actually praying he continues to thrive.
If he’s profitable, it could possibly be astounding, given the circumstances.
When Jessica Cisneros selected to make a run at Cuellar for the second time in two election cycles, Cuellar’s crew knew it was severe. With little funding and identify ID the primary time, she had come inside placing distance. This time she had cash and endorsements from heavy hitters like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
In January, the FBI publicly raided his house, leaving him largely unable to disclose particulars about why quite a few packing containers have been carried out of his suburban dwelling, even now. His lawyer later claimed the Division of Justice says Cuellar is just not a goal of the investigation, which was associated to enterprise dealings in Azerbaijan, The Each day Beast reported at the moment. In time, pictures of the raid have been featured in marketing campaign advertisements in opposition to him—and raised questions amongst voters.
After that, neither Cuellar nor his progressive opponent hit 50% within the main, and the competition went into an agonizing two-and-a-half-month runoff, which he gained by just below 300 votes.
After which, the Supreme Courtroom this summer season struck down Roe v. Wade, and Cuellar’s stance because the lone Home Democrat who’s overtly in opposition to abortion was extra within the limelight than ever.
It’s not the form of 12 months that units any Democrat up for achievement. Much more so in a area like South Texas the place Republicans, emboldened by their beneficial properties with Latino voters in latest elections, have been funneling cash in for his or her candidates, together with Cuellar’s GOP opponent Cassy Garcia.
Latching on to his identify recognition and standing because the “King of Laredo,” Cuellar’s by some means forecasted to do properly this November.
As Joshua Clean, analysis director for the Texas Politics Mission, put it in an interview: “I wouldn’t guess in opposition to Cuellar.”
As his Democratic colleagues in comparable electoral positions have watched their probabilities fluctuate all year long, the Democratic Congressional Committee didn’t add Cuellar to their “frontliners” record of probably the most endangered Democrats—nor did his seat ever fall into Republican territory on impartial rating lists like Cook dinner Political Report, which ranks the competition as “Lean Dem.”
Most of the DCCC’s frontliners record is made up of moderates like Cuellar who hail from swing districts, like Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), Sanford Bishop (D-GA) or Jared Golden (D-ME), who're additionally members of the centrist Blue Canine Coalition in Congress with Cuellar.
To make certain, something may occur. Garcia is well-resourced and Republicans have made tangible beneficial properties within the area. Districts like Cuellar’s are additionally notoriously troublesome to ballot, with low connectivity, language limitations, mixed-immigration statuses and extra.
However there’s a mixture of causes Cuellar—and ultra-moderate within the Home—is probably going capable of stage with voters on this mild blue district.
He’s a stalwart on rising safety on the border. He’s recognized for bringing much-needed funds again to the world. He’s not ultra-cozy with President Biden and was open to former President Trump’s insurance policies in methods different Democrats weren't. And his connections within the city run deep; his brother Martin is the sheriff, whereas his sister Rosie is the previous county tax collector.
As Clean places it, Cuellar is a “good match for the district,” and voters don’t need to make a lot of a psychological leap to vote for a congressman who they’ve already elected 9 instances.
“For all the issues the Democrats might or might not be having in South Texas, Henry Cuellar is just not the focus of these issues,” he mentioned.
However that doesn’t imply Republicans are taking it straightforward on the congressman. In advertisements, the GOP has blasted him as a corrupt, out-of-touch politician who deserves the boot.
“Time for Henry Cuellar to start out answering questions. The FBI’s asking. Raiding his home. Probing ties to a middle-east authorities,” one advert by the Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee mentioned.
One other NRCC advert featured allegations that Cuellar “does it for the facility, cash and status” and that Cuellar had “tasted the great life, virtually dwelling like a king” who’s solely providing voters the scraps from his desk.
An advert by the Congressional Management Fund, one other Republican-aligned PAC, insisted Cuellar “actually” lives in his D.C. residence, declaring quite a lot of facilities allegedly included within the apartment constructing like a 24-hour concierge and a health middle (none of which that aren't all that uncommon for D.C. residence complexes).
“He’s gone Washington. Forgot about us,” the narrator chimes.
And nationwide conservatives are optimistic about Garcia’s probabilities, although Democrats have sought to pin her as a menace to social safety and well being care. One GOP strategist instructed The Each day Beast they’re assured Cuellar’s standing within the district is shaky, stating, “He’s struggling… I believe that his picture has turn out to be pretty unpopular within the district.”
Clean pointed on the market's extra Democrats on this district might have to do with a purpose to achieve success, different than simply attacking Garcia’s coverage positions. They should push for turnout at a a lot larger price than years previous, he mentioned.
With elevated investments from Republicans, the GOP base in South Texas is mobilized to an rising diploma. Meaning Democrats like Cuellar need to work to amp up turnout to maintain up with energized GOP voters, a few of whom might not have voted in elections previous.
Ed Espinoza, president of the group Progress Texas, additionally instructed The Each day Beast that Democrats should be cognizant of maintaining their vitality and investments in South Texas writ massive, even when Republicans aren’t explicitly stealing seats away en masse but.
“South Texas is just not a base Democratic space. The Latino neighborhood typically is just not a base Democratic neighborhood. A portion of it's base-Democrat and a portion of it's swing. A portion of it’s conservative and that’s the case all over the place,” he mentioned.
Not maintaining the grassroots work stepping into districts like Cuellar’s may power Democrats to pay the worth in future elections.
“Democrats ignore South Texas at their very own peril,” he mentioned.