EXPLAINER: Russia’s risky options beyond full Ukraine attack

byJohn Smith •
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On this Jan. 27, 2022, picture, Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath laying commemoration ceremony on the Piskaryovskoye Cemetery the place a lot of the Leningrad Siege victims have been buried throughout World Battle II, in St. Petersburg, Russia. With greater than 100,000 Russian troops positioned round Ukraine, Putin seems to be getting ready to launch an invasion. Actually, the U.S. believes that is the case and President Joe Biden has warned the Ukrainian president that an assault might are available in February.
  • In this Jan. 27, 2022, photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath laying commemoration ceremony at the Piskaryovskoye Cemetery where most of the Leningrad Siege victims were buried during World War II, in St. Petersburg, Russia. With more than 100,000 Russian troops positioned around Ukraine, Putin appears to be preparing to launch an invasion. Certainly, the U.S. believes that's the case and President Joe Biden has warned the Ukrainian president that an attack could come in February.
  • Ukrainian's drive in an armored personnel carrier near front line position in the Luhansk area, in eastern Ukraine, Friday, Jan. 28, 2022. With more than 100,000 Russian troops positioned around Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing to launch an invasion. Certainly, the U.S. believes that's the case and President Joe Biden has warned the Ukrainian president that an attack could come in February.
  • In this Jan. 26, 2022, photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia. With more than 100,000 Russian troops positioned around Ukraine, Putin appears to be preparing to launch an invasion. Certainly, the U.S. believes that's the case and President Joe Biden has warned the Ukrainian president that an attack could come in February.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping, center left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, center right, enter a hall for talks in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, June 5, 2019. Russia and China have forged closer military ties with a series of joint war games, and some believe that Moscow could further bolster its cooperation with Beijing amid the tensions with the West over Ukraine.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be getting ready to launch an invasion of Ukraine, with greater than 100,000 troops positioned across the nation. Actually, the U.S. believes that’s the case and President Joe Biden has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that an assault might are available in February.

However Russia denies it’s getting ready to invade and Putin’s intentions stay a thriller.

Russia, which is in search of a pledge that NATO received’t increase to incorporate Ukraine, has choices it might pursue wanting a full-blown invasion, and different methods to lash out on the U.S. and its allies. All of them carry various levels of danger, to Russia and the world.

A have a look at a few of them:

SOMETHING SHORT OF A FULL-SCALE INVASION

In 2014, Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. That yr it additionally began arming rebels within the japanese area referred to as the Donbas, beginning a low-boiling battle that has killed greater than 14,000 folks. Many Russia watchers speculate that the latest buildup of Russian troops and naval forces is the subsequent chapter in a bigger effort to chip away at Ukraine, maybe taking benefit because the U.S. and its allies in Europe are distracted by COVID-19 and different points. Attainable eventualities embrace offering further help to the Russia-backed rebels or launching a restricted invasion, simply sufficient to destabilize Zelenskyy and usher in a pro-Kremlin chief.

Stopping wanting a full-scale invasion would give Russia extra time to get extra forces in place and take a look at the dedication of the U.S. and its allies to the punishing sanctions promised by Biden, says retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Military forces in Europe. “He’s going to proceed doing what he’s doing proper now, persevering with to use most strain on Ukraine and to attempt to destabilize the federal government to alarm folks,” Hodges stated. “There’s plenty of functionality in place to do extra, ought to the chance current itself.”

Which may nonetheless find yourself triggering sanctions that might harm the Russian financial system and harm Putin at dwelling. There’s additionally the danger that a restricted motion isn’t sufficient to realize the Russian president’s purpose of undermining European safety by rolling again, or at the least halting, NATO enlargement, says Dmitry Gorenburg, an analyst with CNA, a analysis group in Arlington, Virginia. “I don’t assume it will get him what he desires,” he stated. “It didn’t get them that earlier than. So why now?”

ECONOMIC WARFARE

Russia is a serious participant in world power, the third-largest oil producer after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and the supply of about 40% of the pure fuel utilized in Europe. It is usually a serious exporter of wheat, notably to growing nations. Any transfer to chop the circulate of power may very well be painful to Europe in winter with fuel and oil costs already excessive. Equally, rising meals costs are an issue world wide.

Putin has some financial leverage, however there’s no indication he would use it and it might find yourself hurting Russia in the long term, says Edward Fishman, a former State Division official who's now a senior fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Middle. Any transfer by Russia to chop off fuel shipments would push European nations to search out various sources for the longer term. “It’s a weapon you possibly can solely use as soon as,” he stated. “You do that after and also you lose that leverage without end.” The Biden administration is already working with Qatar and different suppliers to exchange Russian fuel if wanted.

CYBERATTACKS

There’s little question Russia has the potential to conduct important cyberattacks in Ukraine and world wide, and would nearly definitely achieve this once more as a part of any operation towards its neighbor. The Division of Homeland Safety warned regulation enforcement companies on Jan. 23 that Russia would think about initiating a cyberattack on the U.S., together with potential actions towards vital infrastructure, if it perceived the response to an invasion of Ukraine “threatened its long-term nationwide safety.”

Russia is the suspected offender in a 2015 hack towards the Ukraine energy grid. Hackers this month quickly shut down authorities web sites in Ukraine, underscoring how cybersecurity stays a pivotal concern within the standoff with Russia. “Regardless of the measurement and scale and nature of their floor and air assaults, cyber can be an enormous a part of something they do,” warns Hodges.

The danger to the world is that hostile exercise towards Ukraine might unfold, because the cyberattack referred to as notPetya did to devastating impact in 2017. The draw back to Russia is the U.S. and different nations have the ability to retaliate, as Biden warned Putin in June. “He is aware of there are penalties,” Biden stated.

THE CHINA FACTOR

China isn’t a direct participant within the standoff over Ukraine, but it surely performs a task. Observers have warned that Moscow might reply to Washington’s rejection of its safety calls for by bolstering navy ties with China. Russia and China have held a collection of joint conflict video games, together with naval drills and patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea.

U.S. officers have stated they don’t assume Russia would launch an invasion as President Xi Jinping presides over the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. “The Chinese language are usually not going to be happy if their Olympics are disrupted by conflict,” Gorenburg stated. Putin plans to journey to Beijing to attend the opening of the video games, as U.S. and European leaders sit it out to protest human rights abuses.

One idea amongst Russia watchers is that China is intently following the U.S. and European response over Ukraine to gauge what would possibly occur if it have been to maneuver towards Taiwan. Hodges sees that as a danger. “If we, with our mixed diplomatic and financial energy plus navy energy, can not cease the president of the Russian Federation from doing one thing that's so clearly unlawful and improper and aggressive then I don’t assume President Xi goes to be too impressed with something that we are saying about Taiwan or the South China Sea.”

A RUSSIAN BUILDUP IN LATIN AMERICA

Senior Russian officers have warned that Moscow might deploy troops or navy belongings to Cuba and Venezuela. The threats are imprecise, although Russia does have shut ties to each international locations in addition to Nicaragua. U.S. nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed the concept, and consultants within the area and world wide view it as a method that most likely wouldn’t accomplish a lot, aside from to divert Russian forces wanted elsewhere, and thus is unlikely to occur.

A extra possible situation is that Russia steps up its already in depth propaganda and misinformation efforts to sharpen divisions in Latin America and elsewhere, together with the US.

A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION

It’s not a foregone conclusion that the standoff ends in an invasion. Whereas the Biden administration stated it could not concede to Russia’s safety calls for, there nonetheless appears to be some room for diplomacy. Russian International Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Thursday that the U.S. response “provides hope for the beginning of a severe dialog on secondary questions.”

France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to take a seat down for talks in two weeks, an effort aimed toward reviving a 2015 settlement to ease the battle in japanese Ukraine. Some concern this complicates efforts by the U.S. and NATO to indicate a united entrance towards Russia.

A stand-down could also be good for the world however might come at a value for Putin, Russian journalist Yulia Latynina warned in a New York Occasions essay on Friday. She stated the Russian president could have used his troop buildup as a bluff, hoping to compel the U.S. and Europe to relinquish any intention of nearer ties to Ukraine. “As an alternative of trapping the US, Mr. Putin has trapped himself,” she wrote. “Caught between armed battle and a humiliating retreat, he's now seeing his room for maneuver dwindling to nothing.”

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Isachenkov reported from Moscow.

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